Rent trends in 2026: rental price indices and what landlords actually receive

Moe Afonso · 2026-10-14

You let out a flat or are looking to buy one. Newspapers report sharp rent rises, and property portals announce record rents in Cologne and Hamburg. Yet your own tenant has been paying the same rent for three years. Both can be true at the same time.

The reason is that there is no single measure of rent. There are rents paid under ongoing agreements, and rents asked for in new listings. Each is measured by its own indices, and they change at different rates.

01Two types of rent, two indices

When the Federal Statistical Office refers to “the rental index”, it means net rents excluding service charges within the Consumer Price Index. This covers all ongoing tenancies, predominantly agreements that have been in place for years. Asking rents, by contrast, come from listings and show what landlords are asking for when letting a property to a new tenant.

For a landlord with a long-standing tenant, the left-hand column matters most. Anyone buying a flat and letting it to a new tenant will look at the right-hand column, but must observe the limits imposed by Germany’s rent brake (Mietpreisbremse).

02The Federal Statistical Office’s rental index

The index of net rents excluding service charges has a base year of 2020 = 100. A value of 111.9 means that rents excluding service charges under existing agreements are, on average, 11.9% higher than in 2020.

Over the years, the picture has been remarkably steady. Since 2015, annual residential rent increases have always ranged from 1.2% to 2.2%. Even in 2022, when inflation jumped to 8.7%, rents under ongoing agreements rose by just 1.7%.

The other side of this matters to landlords. Since 2020, consumer prices have risen by 26.6%, while existing rents have increased by 11.9%. After adjusting for inflation, rents under ongoing agreements have therefore fallen by around 12%. At the same time, the costs of tradespeople, property management and insurance that you bear as a landlord have increased.

03Asking rents in major cities

The picture is different for new lettings. For the GREIX Rental Price Index, the Kiel Institute analyses listings from 37 cities and regions. In the second quarter of 2026, asking rents there averaged €14.30 per square metre, 3.0% higher than a year earlier.

Source: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, GREIX Rental Price Index, second quarter of 2026, published on 22 July 2026.

New-build flats were advertised at an average of €19.00, compared with €13.90 for existing flats. The gap of €5.10 per square metre explains why investment calculations for new-build properties assume higher rents, but these properties also have higher purchase prices. Berlin is the only one of the eight largest cities where asking rents fell year on year.

04Why existing rents rise more slowly

It is no coincidence that rents under ongoing agreements rise by only around 2% a year. Tenancy law permits increases only through specific routes and within certain limits.

The Federal Government plans to limit index-linked rents in areas covered by the rent brake. The draft legislation (Bundestag printed paper 21/6807) provides for only half of any increase exceeding 3% a year to be passed on. It has not yet been passed; the hearing in the Legal Affairs Committee is on 14 October 2026. Our guide Rent increases: rules and deadlines explains which rules apply to you.

05The rental index is not index-linked rent

A common misconception concerns index-linked rent. It follows not the rental index, but the Consumer Price Index for all goods and services. In recent years, that has made a substantial difference because general prices have risen much faster than rents.

With index-linked rent, the rent would have risen by €35.60 over two years, compared with €24.68 if it had followed the rental index. That may not sound like much, but it adds up. The reverse also applies: in years with very low inflation, such as 2016 at 0.4%, index-linked rent barely moves. Use the index-linked rent calculator to work out your own case.

06What rent trends mean for your calculations

For a let flat, rent increases over ten years make a noticeable difference to whether the purchase is financially viable. An honest approach is to compare several assumptions rather than treating a single one as the expected outcome.

Take a flat with a monthly rent excluding service charges of €650, or €7,800 a year. The rates of increase are assumptions, not forecasts. The 1.9% rate matches the increase in existing rents over the past year.

The difference between “no increase” and 3% is €11,418 in rental income over ten years. That is substantial, but less than many people expect. And it is not profit, because maintenance, management and costs that cannot be passed on to tenants also rise over the same period.

07Who should pay particular attention to these figures?

08Risks and limitations

A national index tells you little about your street. The gap in asking rent changes between Berlin (−0.8%) and Cologne (+6.0%) shows how widely cities can differ. For your flat, the local rent schedule (Mietspiegel), location and condition are what matter.

Asking rents are the prices landlords hope to achieve in listings, not the rents actually agreed. And none of these data series tells us how rents will develop in future. Legislative changes, such as the planned cap on index-linked rents, could alter the scope for increases.

Landlords also face the usual risks: void periods between tenants, unpaid rent, disputes over rent increases and rising costs that cannot be passed on to tenants. Our guide to service charges that cannot be passed on to tenants explains which costs these are.

09Further reading

• Rent increases: rules and deadlines
• Local comparable rent
• Germany’s property bubble: what the data shows
• Glossary: index-linked rent
• Glossary: rent brake

10Sources

• Federal Statistical Office: Consumer Price Index for Germany, special breakdowns (net rents excluding service charges) and overall index, 2020 = 100, as at 13 October 2026, destatis.de (accessed 14 October 2026)
• Federal Statistical Office: Inflation rate in September 2026, press release no. 348 dated 30 September 2026 (accessed 14 October 2026)
• Eurostat: HICP annual average indices (prc_hicp_aind), CP041 actual rentals for housing, Germany, as at 6 February 2026 (accessed 14 October 2026)
• Kiel Institute for the World Economy: GREIX Rental Price Index, second quarter of 2026, published on 22 July 2026 via idw-online.de (accessed 14 October 2026)
• §§ 556d–556g, 557a, 557b, 558 BGB, gesetze-im-internet.de (accessed 14 October 2026); Act of 17 July 2025, BGBl. 2025 I Nr. 163
• German Bundestag: Government draft of tenancy law reform, printed paper 21/6807 dated 1 July 2026

Note: This guide provides general information and is not a substitute for legal advice on an individual case. The figures describe past developments and are not a forecast.